“Give ‘em hell, John” – - McCain’s Trumanesque Campaign

There seems to be no end to the parade of pundits and seers who proclaim that John McCain cannot possibly win unless he adopts their varied and often conflicting recommendations. Apparently these pontificators cannot read, or perhaps cannot add, as they seem oblivious to the fact that McCain has overtaken Obama in the public-opinion polls. In a race where, by all measures and predictions, McCain should be trailing by 15 or 20 polling points, he defies the expectations of both right and left by matching Obama stride-for-stride.

Barack Obama and his minions often draw what they think are parallels to the 1960 Presidential campaign, in which John F. Kennedy defeated Richard M. Nixon to become the first Roman Catholic elected to the White House. The comparison is meretricious – - Obama is no JFK, and many factors at work in the 1960 campaign are no longer present. But if we’re going to play with comparisons to the Presidential campaigns of yesteryear, I have one which fits much better: the Truman-Dewey contest of 1948.

President Harry S. Truman

In the summer of 1948, there was only one person in the Democratic Party leadership who believed that Harry S. Truman would win the election – - and that person was Harry S. Truman. Even First Lady Bess Truman was pessimistic. Truman’s popularity had waned quickly after the end of World War II; the Republican Party had taken control of Congress in the 1946 elections, and there was serious dissension in the Democratic leadership, with some going so far as to suggest that Truman step aside in favor of a viable candidate.

In 1948, as in 2008, the differences in campaign finances were stark; Republican nominee Tom Dewey, a popular governor of New York, was flush, while the Truman campaign was perpetually strapped for cash. Also in 1948, as in 2008, the mass media sided openly with one candidate, Dewey, and the public opinion polls showed Truman trailing Dewey, sometimes by double-digits.

The Democratic Party fragmented; on the left, some Democrats bolted to form the Progressive Party, running former vice-president Henry Wallace for the presidency, and on the right, the so-called “Dixiecrats” walked out of the Democratic convention and backed Strom Thurmond, then the governor of South Carolina. The dissension within the Democratic ranks was so bad that Truman, a sitting President, was kept off the ballot in Alabama.

Gov. Thomas E. Dewey

Dewey was actually the more liberal candidate; at his insistence, the Republican convention had adopted a platform which included expanding social security, increasing funding for public housing, backing civil rights legislation, and promoting health and education measures to be undertaken by the Federal government. Dewey’s rather pompous speeches were notoriously vague, however, and his hallmark phrase was, “You know that your future is still ahead of you.”

Does any of this sound familiar???

Anyway, if you want to study hard-core media bias, the 1948 election is the place to start. Life magazine published an edition featuring a picture of Dewey on the cover, captioned “The Next President of the United States.” The New York Times ran the headline, “Thomas E. Dewey’s Election as President is a Foregone Conclusion.” Newsweek magazine featured a survey of fifty top political reporters and commentators; all fifty forecast a Dewey landslide. The Roper Poll called it quits for the campaign in September, declaring that there was no need for further polls. On election day, the Washington Star featured a front-page story stating flatly that “Thomas Dewey will be elected president of the United States.”

Truman, meanwhile, was criticized for running against Congress rather than against Dewey, although in fact he sharply attacked Dewey early and often. Truman’s campaign was so strapped for cash that radio networks sometimes cut off his campaign speeches in mid-sentence. Dewey’s movie-theater featurette was a well-funded, professional production, while Truman’s was cobbled together from public-domain newsreel footage.

While Dewey’s campaign made transition plans, Truman rented a train and took to the rails on his now-famous “whistle-stop” campaign. The choice was made out of economic necessity; Truman hadn’t enough money for airplanes. Between July and November, Truman traveled over 30,000 rail miles and made 201 “whistle-stop” appearances. According to legend, it was at one of those whistle-stops, while Truman was pounding out his message about the “do-nothing 80th Congress,” that a supporter shouted out, “Give ‘em hell, Harry!”

On the night of November 2, 1948, as the election returns were still being tallied, the Chicago Tribune printed its morning edition with the headline “DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN.” While Dewey and his backers gathered in a hotel room in New York City to follow the returns, Truman left Kansas City for a nearby town to get some sleep in a motel room, alone. He awoke at 4:00 a.m. and heard on the radio that he was leading Dewey by more than 2,000,000 votes. By the time he returned to Kansas City, it was clear to everyone that Harry S. Truman had made the most stunning comeback in the history of American Presidential politics; the picture of Truman beaming while holding up the “DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN” headline is an iconic symbol of the victory of the underdog.

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In the middle of July, 2008, Barack Obama – - well-funded, well-organized, with high production values and an adoring media contingent, made a glorious march through the Middle East and Europe. Meanwhile, John McCain, underfunded and over-criticized, plodded through a series of town-hall meetings, criticizing Congress for doing nothing to confront the energy crisis and talking with American citizens face-to-face. Obama’s triumphal return was marred only by the news that John McCain had pulled even in the public opinion polls.

Give ‘em hell, John!