With the two tracking polls continuing to show a virtual tie between John McCain and Barack Obama, standalone polls released this week by Time and CBS News both identify problems for the Obama campaign. In addition, comparison of registered voter polls versus likely voter polls show that McCain has developed an underlying strengthening of his numbers.
Today’s tracking polls stand as follows: Rasmussen, Obama +1; Gallup, Obama +2. Rasmussen also features a weekly tracking poll summary which confirms the trend toward a tied race, broken only briefly by Obama’s Berlin mini-bounce.
Missing from the Real Clear Politics lineup for this period is an ATV/Zogby poll which gives McCain a one-point lead among likely voters. While I mistrust Zogby’s Internet-panel polls, the ATV/Zogby poll released on August 4 was done the old-fashioned way, by telephone interviews, and I know of no reason not to consider it. The ATV/Zogby poll showed a significant turnaround from the July Reuters/Zogby poll, which had Obama +7 using the same sampling methodology.
When analyzing the seven current standalone polls, two things are apparent: first, the numbers of undecided voters are not increasing, as some pollsters are reporting; and, second, there is a noticeable difference between the results of registered-voter polls and the results of likely-voter polls.
Undecided voters. The purpose of having aggregations of polls, as on RCP, is to even out the differences in polling methodology and sampling errors. The range of undecided voters reported by current polls is great, from a low of 5% (CNN) to a high of 16% (CBS News). However, when I looked at the aggregated numbers of all seven stand-alone polls, the average “undecided” factor was slightly under 10.6%. Referring back to a chart I had made for the article Polls: McCain, Obama In Close Race; Trends Are Against Obama, I noted the following numbers for undecided voters reported by standalone polls: late May, 11%; early June, 10.9%; late June, 11.7%; early July, 11.8%; late July, 9.6%. This movement is in a fairly narrow range. The number of undecided voters is significant; however, the current polls suggest a return to the pre-Berlin bouncelet range. If there is a trend, it is for the movement of voters away from Obama, probably into the “undecided” column, and a movement of voters from “undecided” to McCain, leaving the net undecided numbers essentially the same.
Registered Voter – Likely Voter Polls. Some of the current polls are based on responses from voters who say they are registered to vote, while other pollsters ask questions to determine whether respondents are likely to vote. These are identified as RV (registered voter) and LV (likely voter) in the RCP listings. The ATV/Zogby poll was an LV poll. When I aggregate the polls by type, I get the following results: in RV polls, Obama leads by slightly more than 5 points; in the LV polls, Obama leads by one-fourth of one point. The RV polls for this period include 6,585 respondents and the LV polls include 5,610 respondents; these numbers are large enough to reduce the probable margin of error below 2 per cent. I believe this difference is indicative of an underlying strength in McCain’s polling numbers – - he does better among persons who are more likely to vote.
The numbers of voters reported in RV polls is well above actual turnout in past Presidential elections. In recent election cycles, turnout has been in the range of 50% to 55% of eligible voters; a turnout of 60% nationwide would be extraordinary. The RV polls rely on percentages far higher than history would justify. For example, the AP-Ipsos poll counted 83% of adult respondents; there is no reasonable probability that actual voter turnout will approach this magnitude. Consequently, the RV polls include responses from a larger number of persons who are not going to vote than do the LV polls. That he is more popular with non-voters is not good news for Barack Obama.
The CBS News poll concluded that John McCain still leads Obama in public perception of who will make the better commander-in-chief, despite Obama’s overseas tour. Time concluded that “on specific issues, Obama is treading water or sinking a bit,” noting McCain had gained on the economy and increased his lead on the handling of Iraq and managing the war on terror. Finally, the Pew Center released a poll with the headline Obama Fatigue, reporting that 48 per cent of respondents said that they had been hearing “too much” about Barack.
My thanks to 30yrdem-not any more for her contributions to this article. Please visit her blog, McCain Democrats.
RELATED ARTICLES:
Polls: McCain, Obama In Close Race; Trends Are Against Obama
Polljunkie, July 31: Tracking Polls Continue To Show McCain Gains
Gallup Poll Confirms McCain Gains
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August 6, 2008 at 11:39 pm
Glad to see you had time to put this together and get it up.
I am wondering if the Paris ad will have any effect on the polls…I heard someone say it will hurt McCain with Older voters, I don’t see it doing that but maybe. One never knows what will turn a voter off. I thought it was cute and it is not like it will be run on TV., well maybe entertainment shows, I never watch them but a lot of people do.
Great piece…got my vote in at RCP.
August 7, 2008 at 7:32 am
I’ve been somewhat skeptical of the polling numbers we’ve seen so far.
The entire reason we gerrymander Congressional districts is to ensure that minorities are represented in Congress. The centrality of race in shaping voter attitudes has long been recognized by the courts and, absent gerrymandering, blacks would have fewer Congressmen.
In state-wide and Senatorial races, blacks are under-represented. There are few elected black state governors and it’s rare to see a US Senator who is black.
Nevertheless, in the current election, Obama is consistently ahead in the polls. But the national election is just a series of state-wide elections in which, if earlier patterns hold, one would expect a black candidate to lag badly.
Moreover, in the Democratic primaries this year, Obama just barely eked-out a victory over Hillary. That is, in the primaries – where blacks make up a far larger percentage of the vote than they do in the general – Obama just barely managed to squeak by. But we are asked to believe that when we poll the general public, Obama actually does better than he did in the primaries. I would think that impossible because we have added in the Republicans.
It may be that normal polling methods are not working this year or that a substantial percentage of the public will not tell a stranger on the telephone how they actually intend to vote for fear of appearing poltically incorrect or even racist.
But race is still a central factor in the election, as it always is. In Hawaii, they no doubt tend to vote for other Hawaiians. Blacks are 95% or so for Obama. Whites will no doubt go heavily for McCain.
Also, if a poll were to show a 45%-45% split between McCain and Obama, I would guess that almost all of the 10% who are undecided are white (Almost all blacks are voting Obama – they are not undecided.) It might just be easier to tell the stranger on the telephone that you have not made up your mind yet. A large percentage of these voters will break for McCain.
I would add that if we are truly a “post-racial” society, we should not be gerrymandering Congressional districts along racial lines. If Obama actually wins, we may want to end this anti-democratic practice.
August 7, 2008 at 8:45 am
General Election: McCain vs. Obama
Polling Data
Poll Date Sample Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread
RCP Average 07/23 – 08/05 — 46.9 43.4 Obama +3.5
CBS News 07/31 – 08/05 906 RV 45 39 Obama +6.0
Time 07/31 – 08/04 808 LV 46 41 Obama +5.0
Gallup Tracking 08/03 – 08/05 2691 RV 46 44 Obama +2.0
Rasmussen Tracking 08/03 – 08/05 3000 LV 47 46 Obama +1.0
AP-Ipsos 07/31 – 08/04 833 RV 48 42 Obama +6.0
CNN 07/27 – 07/29 914 RV 51 44 Obama +7.0
why leave out the polls showing 5 and 6 point leads
August 7, 2008 at 8:56 am
larry g: You may want to brush up on your reading skills, including the parts where I say, for example, “I looked at the aggregated numbers of all seven stand-alone polls.” All means all; nothing was left out.
August 7, 2008 at 11:43 am
Jay,
Love the blog… I recently wrote something similar, please check it out!
http://texashillblog.wordpress.com/2008/08/02/wasnt-obama-supposed-to-bring-new-people-into-the-party-guess-again/
oh, and gonna add you to my blog roll!
Keep up the good work!!!
August 7, 2008 at 11:47 am
I emailed RCP to find out why the recent Zogby poll wasn’t included. They said it’s because that poll doesn’t have a two way breakdown, only a four-way (including barr and nader).
Zogby is included in their four-way poll aggregation here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/other/us/general_election_fourway_race-957.html
The four-way aggregation shows Obama with 44.5, McCain 41.5, Nader 3.5 and Barr 2.5. There’s no graph to show the trend like there is on the two-way page, but looking at the earlier four-way numbers appears to show the race tightening even more than the two-way numbers show. Nader also appears to consistently poll higher than Barr.
August 7, 2008 at 1:40 pm
Great post! Good analysis – I wrote a piece a few weeks back regarding the polls cited at RCP and Why Obama Can Lose. Your points are well taken.
A quick note to Sarah above – Gerrymandering has been around since the early 19th century, named after a politician named Gerry, and the shape of a district that was compared to the outline of a salamander. The purpose has not historically been for fair representation of minorities, but rather, for providing the party in control with an electoral advantage. An incumbent House member has a re-election rate of 98%, while an incumbent Senator has a re-election rate of about 90% in recent history.
Other than your assertion that gerrymandering was designed to affect a positive change for minority representation, I agree with your premise that the practice should be banned and that redistricting should make some kind of sense geographically, rather than splicing districts to keep and contain power.
August 7, 2008 at 9:23 pm
Hey Jude:
Check out:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerrymandering
Take a quick look at section 8.1.2 of the Wikipedia article.
Also, Google up “gerrymandering along racial lines”
August 20, 2008 at 9:38 am
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