John McCain’s Path To Electoral College Victory

Note: This is an updated and improved version of a recent article, An Emerging McCain Electoral Majority. You can continue reading this article here OR you can go to the same article on my Web site, Backcountry Notes, which has an embedded inter-active Electoral College Map.

August 15, 2008: Recently-publicized documents from Hillary Clinton’s campaign revealed, among various things, that polltaker Mark Penn presented a scenario in which a five-point swing in the popular vote will result in a “McCain landslide.” The phrase “McCain landslide” is one you don’t see in the popular media, and most voters don’t acknowledge the possibility. Nevertheless, the makings of at least an electoral majority are becoming clear as John McCain pulls even and moves ahead in key “battleground” states.

So, what would happen if election day were tomorrow, August 16? Would a five-point swing do the job for John McCain?

Colorado: 9 Electoral Votes. Polling results for Colorado are mixed; the three polls included in the Real Clear Politics average have Obama ahead by only four-tenths of a point, although McCain has a small lead in two of the polls. The “undecideds” in Colorado are about 9%, only slightly below national average. A five-point swing is enough to put Colorado in McCain’s electoral college column.

Florida: 27 Electoral Votes. The three most recent of the five polls included in the Real Clear Politics average favor McCain by margins of +3, +4, and +6. Undecided voters are comparatively lower in Florida (about 7%-8%), although still above expectations based on past elections. In an “if the election were held tomorrow” scenario, a swing of only two points puts McCain above the polling margin of error.

Indiana: 11 Electoral Votes. As of August 14, polling data on Indiana is scarce; RCP lists no Indiana polls taken since June. The average of the older polls is Obama by half a point. On the weak available data, I assume that a five-point swing would keep Indiana in the Red States.

Iowa: 7 Electoral Votes. While polling data is sparse in Iowa, the most recent Rasmussen survey showed a strong gain for McCain, from -10 to -5, with an “undecided” figure (before leaners are allocated) of 13 points. The RCP average is Obama +5.7 as of August 15, but this counts a poll from April and a good case could be made that the better gauge us the average of more recent polls at Obama +4.5. Due to lack of sufficient current polls, I have to leave Iowa in Obama’s total for the time being, but if the trend continues, Iowa will be in play for John McCain.

Michigan: 17 Electoral Votes. The four Michigan polls reported by RCP all show an Obama lead, with an average of +3.2 points. Using the un-”leaned” Rasmussen numbers, the polls report an average “undecided” factor of about 13%, which is slightly above the current national average. Michigan is one of the places where I would expect to see a Bradley-Wilder Effect if the vote were taken tomorrow. A five-point swing is a realistic possibility and would be enough to put Michigan in McCain’s electoral college totals.

Minnesota: 10 Electoral Votes. Whoa! Minnesota, the bluest of the Blue States, has changed from an Obama stronghold in June to a closely-contested battleground state in August. The Real Clear Politics average as of August 15 is Obama +3.2, within the polling margin of error. Using the un-”leaned” Rasmussen figures indicates an “undecided” figure of about 12-13 per cent, somewhat above the current national average and high by historic standards. While I do not expect to see a large Bradley-Wilder Effect here, there is more than enough room for a 5-point swing, which would put Minnesota in McCain’s total.

Missouri: 11 Electoral Votes. The four polls on today’s RCP Missouri list put McCain in the lead by an average of 2.3 points. The average “undecided” factor is about 9 points, slightly below the national average. McCain needs only a three-point swing to put Missouri outside the polling margin of error and into his electoral college count.

Nevada: 5 Electoral Votes. RCP does not publish an average for Nevada, as most of the polling data comes from a series of Rasmussen polls. If they are averaged, the polls show a small McCain lead. The un-”leaned” Rasmussen results and the Mason-Dixon poll consistently indicate an “undecided” factor of about 13 per cent. A swing of 5 points would put McCain safely above the polling margin of error.

New Hampshire: 4 Electoral Votes. Ironically, New Hampshire, famous for making or breaking Presidential primary candidates, could be the difference in the 2008 electoral college. Polling data is sparse; currently the RCP average has Obama +1.4, with a significant “undecided” factor of about 12%. There is plenty of room for a 5-point swing, which would put New Hampshire in the McCain total.

New Mexico: 5 Electoral Votes. RCP does not publish an average for New Mexico, as most of the polling data comes from a series of Rasmussen polls. If they are averaged, the polls show an Obama lead of almost 6 points. The un-”leaned” Rasmussen results consistently indicate an “undecided” factor of about 13 per cent. A swing of 5 points would leave Obama with a slim lead in New Mexico.

North Carolina: 15 Electoral Votes. Obama has never led in a North Carolina poll. The RCP average of McCain +3.5 is based on four polls taken from mid-July to August 11. Analysis of those polls indicates an “undecided” factor of 10%, about the same as the national average. As in Virginia, if the election were held tomorrow, the majority of those voters would likely move to McCain; a five-point “swing” in North Carolina is a realistic scenario, and a “swing” of only two points puts McCain above the polling margin of error.

Ohio: 20 Electoral Votes. The four Ohio polls reported by RCP have a wide range of results, with an average Obama lead of one-half point. Using the un-”leaned” Rasmussen numbers, the polls report an average “undecided” factor of more than 10%. A five-point swing is a realistic scenario and would be enough to put Ohio in McCain’s electoral college totals.

Pennsylvania: 21 Electoral Votes. The four polls in today’s RCP average all show Obama ahead and indicate a +6.8-point lead, which is above the margin for error. Analysis of the polls indicates an “undecided” factor of 11%, in line with national trends. A five-point swing would leave Pennsylvania in Obama’s column. The Bradley-Wilder Effect makes a larger swing a possibility, but for now, Pennsylvania remains pro-Obama.

Virginia: 13 Electoral Votes. As of August 14, the three polls reported on Real Clear Politics for the month of August had the candidates tied in one poll and McCain ahead by one in the other two. This is a turnaround from June, when three polls taken after Obama clinched the Democratic nomination all showed Obama ahead by 1 or 2 points. When the un-”leaned” Rasmussen figures are used, the average of “undecided” voters in the three August polls is 10 per cent. If the election were held tomorrow, the majority of those voters would likely move to McCain; a five-point “swing” in Virginia is a realistic scenario.

The overall electoral vote results in these “battleground” states, assuming a net 5-point swing in McCain’s favor, is 143 for McCain and 33 for Obama. As of this writing, the Real Clear Politics electoral map has McCain with 163 electoral votes; adding 143 electoral votes results in a total of 306 for McCain, 36 more than are needed to win.

Note: The links to the Real Clear Politics site should update as more polls are added. You can check back later and then send me comments about what a genius and/or chucklehead I am.

Note also: I have not considered at this point the possible impact of third-party candidates. Many poll respondents use third-party candidates as a means of casting a “protest” vote in summer polls; these comparisons will be more meaningful in the Fall, when a lot may have changed anyway. The current average of RCP Four-Way Race polls has Obama +3.8 (lower than the head-to-head matchups) with neither Nader nor Barr having a strong showing. The only state matchup I found which included a third-party candidate was Georgia, Bob Barr’s home state, where McCain retains a substantial lead and Barr runs a very distant third.

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